David Villa was remarkably calm when they carried him from the field. So calm that there was hope that, even as he was carried off, sitting up on the stretcher and holding his shin, the injury was not that serious. It was. As he chased a ball into the penalty area, he planted his left leg down. Hard. Look carefully at the replay and you could see the point at which his shin snapped forward below the knee. Medical reports confirmed a fracture in the left tibia. Barcelona are flying the striker back from Club World Cup in Yokohama for an operation. The early prognosis suggests a lay-off of four to six months. "We'll lose him for a long time," said Pep Guardiola after the victory over Al-Sadd.
It is not just them. After examination in Japan, Villa immediately told his family that he was hopeful about being fit in time to travel to Poland. But he might not make Euro 2012.
Before a recent Copa del Rey game against L'Hospitalet, Guardiola admitted that Villa was struggling. "He has a small problem with the tibia, it is very painful but he puts up with it because he is very strong and very competitive," the Barcelona coach said. That small problem was, it appears, a fissure. Before Spain played England at Wembley Villa admitted: "I feel fine but it is true that I've had some shin pain lately. Not pain that stops me playing but pain that does make me uncomfortable."
On Thursday Guardiola associated Villa's injury with the "huge effort he has been making to play for a number of months with a stress fracture in the tibia". That poses questions about Villa's fitness and the decision to continue playing.
The other question is: what now? Guardiola was reluctant to address that issue. "This is not the time to discuss alternatives," he said. "Let's have a bit of sensitivity." Yet if the coach did not want to talk about it, others did – all over Spain.
Villa has been arguably the finest striker in world football over the last five years. In his entire career, at Sporting Gijón, Real Zaragoza and Valencia, he has never scored fewer than 15 league goals. The surprise was not that he ended up at Barcelona for €40m [£35m] but that it took so long. He is 30 now. He scored in the Champions League final and was the top scorer at Euro 2008 and the World Cup in 2010. He scored seven goals for Spain in qualification for Euro 2012 – making him their top scorer. He also became Spain's all-time leading marksman, overtaking Raúl.
All of which makes it all the more astonishing that, in purely footballing terms, his teams may be able to live without him. Barcelona, certainly. Villa was not in the Barcelona starting XI against Real Madrid last weekend and his position on the bench was a worryingly familiar one. When he has played, he has not looked quite so sharp nor so fluid as before. Perhaps that injury played its part; adapting to Lionel Messi might have done so too – Villa has been playing a supporting role rather than the striking lead.
Even last season, capped with that Wembley goal, there were doubts. Villa was usually played on the left rather than through the middle. That was not quite as radical a departure as it appeared – he had done so for Spain and tended to drift out or come in from the left with Valencia too – but it was different. This season, Villa has scored five in 15 games in the league and three in four in the Champions League. But he has started only half the league games and might have started fewer still but for injury to Alexis Sánchez earlier in the season. Pedro too has been injured. Both are now back.
Cesc Fábregas has been employed as a false No9 and this season has also seen the emergence of Isaac Cuenca as the wide man in Barcelona's front three. Cuenca has played nine times in the past two months.
Guardiola may not feel the need to replace Villa, even though his absence leaves the squad short. There had even been suggestions about his future, with some reports suggestion he would leave during the winter window. The cover of Thursday morning's Marca suggested it was "play or go". An imminent departure was never a real possibility – Guardiola bluntly responded to one report by saying: "Marca lies" – but a summer move was. That could now be affected.
So of course could Spain. Vicente del Bosque has alternatives, even with Fernando Torres's collapse in form. Against Scotland, he played David Silva in a false No9 position, fulfilling the role that Messi plays for Barcelona. Silva scored twice and made the other. Alvaro Negredo and Fernando Llorente offer goals. Roberto Soldado did not even get into the squad, despite scoring 42 league goals in the last two and a half seasons, or his 11 goals in 12 European games over the last season and a half. Now, at last, he might.
Somehow Villa's achievements with Spain seemed to be overshadowed fractionally but the fact is that he did not score in the semi-final or final of either tournament won by the national team. Playing at Valencia did not help when it came to media campaigns dominated by Madrid and Barcelona but it was striking that he did not get championed as a Ballon d'Or candidate. Spain's strength comes from their midfield and its creativity and they have alternatives up front. Good ones.
Yet none quite offers what Villa does; none quite makes the difference as he has. The players within the squad would recognise his importance; the coach too. No one has his movement or his finishing ability. All of his replacements are valid candidates but they all would require something of a change in style. With Villa in the team Spain have scored 2.33 goals per game; without him over the same period that figure drops to 1.78.
Recently Del Bosque admitted that he was in an "uncomfortable position" because of the relative lack of minutes being given to Negredo (who was injured), Torres and Villa. It was a problem, he conceded – particularly when it came to Villa – for them not to be participating as much as he would like. "But," he added, "there is a long way to go in the season, Barcelona will have a lot of games and a lot to play for. Villa will be important for them. He will play a lot." Sadly, that is no longer true.